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0.1 US Mortgage Primer

  • Housing market summary

    1. $2Tr annual origination - 95% Freddie/Fannie/Ginnie, 5% private MBS o/w ~30% Refinance in '18 (keeps fluctuating a lot with interest rate obviously)

    2. Total value of US housing stock - $29Tr o/w $18Tr is owners equity and $11Tr is debt

      1. $11Tr debt split between approx $7tr with 3 agencies, ~4tr with banks

  1. Cash-refi loans where refinance > balance, and additional amount is cashed out by owners (like HELOCs?)

  2. Home sales (existing + new) back at 6m units annually (peak in 2007 at 8m). 5.5M are existing, 600k-700k are new sales (of every 600k new starts per qtr)

  3. Housing starts (new construction) at 1.2M units per qtr (peak at 2m in 2007)

  4. Home ownership rate - fell from 69% to 64% (millennial don't want to own, but rent, also don't have money - student debt burden)

  5. Housing has gone from oversupply to undersupply (largely rentals requirement increased - millennial shun home ownership till late age)

    1. Multi family market rental vacancy rates (5.4% long term avg), current - 4.7%

    2. Multi family origination - $350B annual - $150B by others, $50B each by Freddie/Fannie, $10-20B by insurers

    3. Multifamily go at lower spreads (to 10yr treasury) ~60-bps as almost all go to rentals hence safer (not new sales)

  1. National home prices inc by 3% in 2019, total interest rate fell from 4.7% to 3.6% in Sept 2019 to 3% in 2020 (spread between 10yr libor to rate - inc from 150bps to 210bps)

  2. Freddie mac - $2.2Tr MBS portfolio, 90% normal MBS, $100B each as investment portfolio

    1. Delinquency 0.25%,

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